Romney Gaining More Support from Moderates
Two weeks ago in Romney Gaining Support from Moderates and Liberals I noted the increased support Mitt Romney was seeing from both Liberals and Moderates. In the last two weeks he’s lost a few Liberals, made more gains with Conservatives and has grabbed a considerable number of Moderates.
The Liberal swing has been 3.1% in Obama’s favor as he has reclaimed some of his base, while Romney has seen a 4.6% swing with Conservatives as Obama lost 2.4% of them while Romney gained 2.2%.
But the major shift has been with self-described Moderates where Obama has lost 5.8% while Romney has gained 4.2% for a 10 point swing.
All of these numbers are within the eight swing states and while Obama still has a lead with Moderates this recent shift in support could be critical in those states that will decide the outcome of the election.
Looking at the most recent six polls in each swing state (all within the last two weeks) the optics are clear that Romney is surging with Moderate voters at a critical time.
If Romney can maintain this trend while holding, as it seems clear he will, the Conservatives we may be looking at the most important shift in support leading up to Election Day.
Further evidence that Moderates may be coming disenchanted with Obama is Romney’s current lead with Independent voters nationally and a comparative view of how he’s doing with Moderates now versus 2008 with Obama against John McCain.
Using the averages from several exit polls in 2008 compared to today’s numbers from the polls mentioned above, Romney is running 7.5% ahead of the Obama/McCain split four years ago. It’s also notable that the Conservative spread is almost 19% with a small 1% gain with Liberals when compared to McCain.
In Romney Regaining Support of Conservatives I noted the resurgence of Conservatives moving back to Romney with a two-week gain of 8.8% and two weeks ago Romney saw a bounce of 7.2% from Liberals.
In the last two weeks, Romney has given back some Liberals but added to his Conservative support and realized a considerable bump from Moderates. If these trends continue for another 9 days, or just remain stable, it could be the deciding difference in the critical states that will determine our next President.