Gallup: More Republicans Than Democrats

Gallup released some figures for how they expect the electorate to look, based on their Daily Tracking Poll from the month of October.

Currently, 46% of likely voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 54% in 2008. But in 2008, Democrats enjoyed a wide 12-point advantage in party affiliation among national adults, the largest Gallup had seen in at least two decades. More recently, Americans have been about as likely to identify as or lean Republican as to identify as or lean Democratic. Consequently, the electorate has also become less Democratic and more Republican in its political orientation than in 2008. In fact, the party composition of the electorate this year looks more similar to the electorate in 2004 than 2008.

In 2008, 54% identified as Democrats and 42% identified as Republicans. Today, 46% identify as Democrats and 49% as Republicans. My main takeaway here is that polls using the 2008 election as a likely composition of the 2012 election can’t be trusted.