Forget The Bump, Romney Has The Momentum
Much has been discussed and theorized about the bump candidates tend to receive after their respective conventions but those little spikes are normally short-lived and relatively unimportant.
What matters more is a longer term look at the momentum each candidate has, or doesn’t have, as Election Day draws closer.
Using the Real Clear Politics polling averages for Obama and Romney as of June 30, 2012 as the baseline and looking to the numbers today as a percentage increase or decrease of their June 30 baseline, it’s clear Mitt Romney has the momentum.
In nine out of ten swing states Romney has greater increase in support with Michigan the exception, and that is a longshot for Romney anyhow. Obama has an average gain of only 0.6% in these ten swing states while Romney has an average of 3.8%, or more than six times that of the President.
It’s also noteworthy that in every state, except Pennsylvania, the current spreads are so small they are within the margin of error AND the percentage of undecided voters, or persuadables as politicking pros call them, is more than twice the spread.
What this all adds up to is Mitt Romney is gaining more support than Barack Obama, and there are easily enough votes available in 9 out of 10 swing states to propel Romney to victory.
The challenge is Romney and Ryan must connect with the persuadables, who tend to favor challengers, between now and November 6. If they do then the momentum Romney currently has, and can build on, will propel him to victory.