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Are Conservatives Abandoning Romney?
There have been 16 public polls conducted in swing states within the last week and there is an alarming statistic, consistent in all the polls regardless of the pollster party bias, that should have the Romney camp more than a little worried and possibly perplexed.
The numbers are clear that self-described conservatives are not supporting Governor Romney in sufficient numbers to win the election. Additionally there is anecdotal evidence that Evangelicals and Tea Party supporters are not embracing the Romney-Ryan ticket at levels that would be expected.
Looking at the crosstabs of the polls conducted in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia within the last ten days, and averaging the support for Obama and Romney by ideology, the chart below speaks thousands of words.
Obama has a 7% greater support level among liberals than Romney has among conservatives, and a 6.8% favorable delta among likely voters who are “bolting from the base”. Without any demographic adjustment, using the raw data from the polls in those five states, Obama has an average lead of 2.5%.
If conservatives were supporting Governor Romney at the same level liberals are supporting President Obama, without any change to the level of support from self-described moderates, Romney could have a 4% plus lead in five states that have a total of 73 electoral votes
With my current electoral map showing Obama with 237 votes and Romney with 222, 73 votes is the ballgame, and by a comfortable margin.
In addition to the ideology breakdowns, the crosstabs show Tea Party supporters favor Romney over Obama, 85.0% to 10.6%, and Evangelical Christians favor Romney over Obama, 63.0% to 28.2%. Now I can immediately write-off a large part of the evangelical numbers because three of the polls conducted by Marist Polling state that 33% of evangelicals support Obama and that skews the numbers badly.
What I can’t write off is there are 7% to 10% of the electorate who describe themselves as either Tea Partiers or Evangelical Christians that are supporting Barack Obama in these five critical states. This is the empirical part of questioning the lack of support from ultra-conservatives within the Republican Party.
Anecdotally speaking there is also evidence that a faction of the party, large enough to insure a Romney-Ryan victory, is not fully behind the GOP ticket. In the last week I have received a minimum of a dozen emails from Tea Party organizations and other ultra-conservative groups demanding the ouster of Barack Obama in November but failing to even mention the names, Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan.
A few of these organizations may have charters as 527’s or another quasi-political group that prevents them from expressing specific support for a given candidate but I know the vast majority are not. So the question that begs to be asked of these groups is if you want Obama gone, why are you not advocating for a Romney-Ryan victory in November?
We are looking at a presidential race today that literally is a statistical tie, and yes I know that phrase is overworked but it is the truth, with President Obama having the upper hand. Clearly there is somewhere between 7% and 15% of conservatives who, while seemingly committed to seeing Obama as a one-term president, are not supporting the only option to victory in November that achieves their stated goal.
So my answer to the question asked is yes, conservatives are abandoning Romney, and that is an answer many Republicans must find unsettling.
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18 Comments
Tom,
I’ve shared this to a few pro-Romney groups and my facebook page. Folks aren’t buying this.
Folks may not want to *buy it* because it’s scary, I get that but the bottom line is the numbers are accurate and that’s disturbing.
I don’t normally post on these articles. However, I do not buy these polls one bit. Polls can ask questions to force the one polled to answer in the manner they want the outcome of the poll to be.
Don’t you remember how all the polls during the nomination process said Romney wasn’t going to win the nomination? It was everyone else but Romney was going to be the Rep Nominee. Guess all those polls were wrong after all.
Read my other articles about polling, party bias and demographically adjusting numbers to obtain an accurate representation but these numbers are valid. Thanks!
I just wonder how much current world events will play a part in changing these numbers in the following weeks. I still think the election is Romney’s to lose.
Well, if the conservatives do go to Obama, or decide not to vote, its goodbye, American, and good luck.
I dont believe that 15% of conservatives are voting Obama. Why should I listen to you are believe you. Youre some dude wit ha blog> Big deal.
There’s nothing to question, number are numbers.
Count me as one who is skeptical that ANY conservative leaning person could possibly consider supporting Obama.
All I can say is, if it is true, they are truly ignorant of what enables the greatness of America, have a selfish entitlement interest that has overwhelmed concern for their country, or they are bigots against Mormonism.
Any of these reasons make them unworthy of their American citizenship.
The numbers are accurate, that’s my job to confirm. The rest I leave to the readers.
“”There’s nothing to question, number are numbers.”"
No they arent. We’ve seen recent polls skewed as much as D+13, which no election since 1976 has seen. Number are numbers if there is no bias, but there is bias.
Not when I analyze them since I demographically adjust every poll to remove/reduce party bias and I always use groups of polls that cross the bias spectrum. That’s how I know my numbers are accurate. Thanks!
As a Tea Party voter, I will not vote for Romney. Especially after his RNC Convention that saw him commit voter fraud against the Tea Party delegates. I’ll only vote for conservatives at the local, state, and federal levels. This new blood can kick out the RINOS, like Boehner and McConnell, and buffer any tricks by Obama if he wins another term. Romney is Obama. Both are big government progressivists. Both are pathological liars. Both will say anything or do anything to get elected. And that is why America is paying the price for politicians willfully ignoring the US Constitution. Come 2016, I’m voting for Sarah Palin. You Betcha!
“Tea Party evangelicals.” Isn’t that an oxymoron? The Tea Party is atheistic secularist – their downfall. They refuse to put God in their platform. The Tea Party is like the Democratic Party of America without the socialism, but that is exactly their ignorance. Without God – failure. The Tea Party has already failed…only remnants left.
Conservatives not supporting RINO Romney…go figure.
If Romney had not picked Ryan, he would most certainly be dead in the water…their contest for American dollars would be over. That is his only saving grace and we will see if it is God’s will to save the USA or not in November. We could even be blessed with a miracle.
Pray, pray, and pray some more for God’s mercy on this nation and on the whole world. With things going the way they are now, we will all be begging for His mercy soon. Hopefully the tide will change direction.
If you’re going to quote me please do so accurately since I never used “Tea Party Evangelicals” rather treated them consistently as two separate factions, both of which are supporting Obama at higher numbers than would be expected. Thank you!
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