The Real Poll Numbers
Conservatives and Republicans are great for doing one thing: panicking.
We’re just a little over two months out from the election and Republicans are fretting as to why Mitt Romney does not have a gargantuan lead over Barack Obama at this point when one considers the economy craphole his policies have gotten us into.
There are a few things to really keep in mind:
- A lot of people are still not really paying attention. The won’t until after the conventions.
- Romney has not been able to spend the hoards of cash he has been raising. He is prohibited from doing so until after the convention. The zone will be flooded. And don’t listen to talking heads who are pontificating like idiots that people will tune out. These ads are run for a reason.
- The larger picture about the mood of voters is buried in the polls that come out.
Many of us who follow politics very closely or work in the business cannot seem to comprehend why people don’t take politics as seriously as we do. So what? I can’t figure out why people rabidly follow soccer which to me is a complete bore.
We operate under the assumption everybody else is waking up at 6:00am and turning on Morning Joe, setting their DVR’s for the Sunday talk shows and reading political blogs and tweets all day long. They don’t. They’ll be paying attention more closely in September and October and numbers are not good for President Obama.
The direction of the country is a major factor in determining which way the political winds are blowing. And if the current numbers are any indication, that desperation we’re seeing from the Obama campaign and constant desire to talk about anything but the economy is very telling.
Gallup – “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?”
Satisfied – 23%
Dissatisfied – 75%
CNN – “How well are things going in the country today: very well, fairly well, pretty badly or very badly?”
Very Well/Fairly Well – 36%
Pretty Badly/Very Badly – 63%
Reuters/Ipsos – “Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?”
Right Direction – 31%
Wrong Track – 64%
Those are all for this month. The latest NBC poll right/wrong track numbers are about the same as last month where it was a 60-32 wrong/right.
The RCP average as shown in the image at the top of the post is 61% wrong track and 33% wrong direction.
The spread between these numbers is anywhere from 27 points to a staggering 52 points in the latest Gallup poll.
For comparison sake the average spread at this same point in 2004 was anywhere from 10-15 points with the majority thinking the country was on the “wrong track.” However, that spread shrunk the closer we got to election day (and was shrinking from earlier in 2004). In 2008, the spread was anywhere from 40-60 points which left McCain with virtually no chance of winning.
In addition, when looking at the polls, look at the key question about who can better handle the economy. Romney is ahead of Obama in every poll on that question.
So let’s not get crazy. At this point, Obama has hit his ceiling. Regardless of Romney’s gaffes, the media focusing endless attention on his tax returns and Bain Capital, and idiotic things like the latest crap with Todd Akin, Obama still can’t crack the 50% barrier.
Twitter friend Nathan Wurtzel said it best:
You can only hide 8.3% unemployment and $5.2T of added debt for so long before you run out of squirrels.
— Nathan Wurtzel (@NathanWurtzel) August 20, 2012