Current Trends Turn Electoral Map Red
As I wrote in Obama’s Current Campaign: Running Backward, the President is trending rapidly in the wrong direction. The effects of poor unemployment numbers, Walker’s overwhelming win in Wisconsin, Romney and the GOP dramatically outpacing Obama and the Democrats in May fund-raising, surrogates falling out of lockstep, and the President’s gaffe and poor spin last Friday have all taken their toll.
Add to those digressions the problems of Attorney General Holder and Fast & Furious, Commerce Secretary Bryson’s leave of absence, and the stories swirling around the leaking of classified information, and potentially you have some major influence on several key states.
The question is how significant has the toll been, so let’s take a look at the current electoral map and the possible damage to Obama’s previous strength in the Electoral College.
The current map at Real Clear Politics using their standard metrics and without the cause-and-effect of Obama’s running backward the President would appear to still have a reasonable edge.
Based on Likely and Leaning states, Obama has 221 electoral votes with a 51 vote lead over Romney.
However, looking at the most recent polling plus overlaying those numbers with my trend line models there is a notable number of potential changes with dramatic effect on the totals.
By moving Arizona, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina from Toss-Up to Likely Romney, and Pennsylvania from Likely Obama to Toss-Up, things make a considerable move toward Romney.
Still a very tight race and Obama does maintain a lead in the Likely category based largely on California, but a much different picture than the one above. There is plenty of time for the Obama campaign to right the ship but there most certainly has been measurable damage done, and the electoral map is showing more “Romney Red” than ever before.