The Last Gasp of the Santorum Campaign

Regardless of the outcome in Louisiana tonight, the GOP primary race is over and Gov. Mitt Romney is the winner. There are three tell-tale signs that make me certain of the outcome and that there is little or no point for Rick Santorum to continue his campaign much longer.

Delegate Count
The only argument the Santorum camp could make previously was the support they would get if Gingrich dropped out (which is a given for reasons that need no clarification), but that is now a moot point. A Gallup Poll released March 16 determined that the effects of Gingrich dropping out would actually be hazardous to Santorum. The poll cited 40% of Newt’s supporters would likely support Romney, while 39% would flow to Rick Santorum and 12% to Ron Paul.

The effects of those numbers plus an equal division of the undecided 9% actually makes the struggle against Romney more challenging and even more improbable. In my opinion it’s actually impossible.

The charts below depict the effects of Newt dropping out on the delegate counts, percentage of delegates and projections based on my analyses and models. While the process does not work quite so simply the net effects would ultimately be very close to what is in the graphs.

Delegate Status by Count – Pledged and Required

Delegate Status by Percentage – Pledged of Total Committed and Required of Available Remaining

Delegate Projections – Final Delegate Count (minor differences due to rounding)

I project Romney would have 270 delegates (20%) more than required to secure the nomination.

Fund-Raising

As of the February 29, 2012 FEC filing, Romney had more than $7.3 million in his campaign war-chest with no debt versus $2.6 million with almost $1 million in debt for Santorum. Additionally the Super PAC supporting Romney had vastly more money than the organization behind Santorum.

Try as they might, neither Senator Santorum nor his Super PAC is in Governor Romney’s league in fund-raising and these margins will widen as time progresses.

Campaign Rhetoric

The last of the three tell-tale signs the Santorum campaign is sucking wind can be found in the increased vitriol coming out of his camp and his own mouth. Desperation breeds rhetoric that grasps at anything perceived of value and smacks of frustration.

Consider the statement Santorum made to a crowd at USAA.

“You win by giving people a choice. You win by giving people the opportunity to see a different vision for our country, not someone who’s just going to be a little different than the person in there. If you’re going to be a little different, we might as well stay with what we have instead of taking a risk with what may be the Etch A Sketch candidate of the future.”

Now this was a follow-up to a very poorly worded statement by a Romney staffer when asked about the campaign strategy post-primary and heading into the general election. Clearly a gaffe of considerable proportions by the Romney camp but the frustration and futility of Santorum’s remarks are unmistakable. In an attempt to walk back his remarks, Senator Santorum released the following statement.

“I would never vote for Barack Obama over any Republican and to suggest otherwise is preposterous. This is just another attempt by the Romney Campaign to distort and distract the media and voters from the unshakeable fact that many of Romney’s policies mirror Barack Obama’s. I was simply making the point that there is a huge enthusiasm gap around Mitt Romney and it’s easy to see why – Romney has sided with Obama on healthcare mandates, cap-and-trade, and the Wall Street bailouts. Voters have to be excited enough to actually go vote, and my campaign’s movement to restore freedom is exciting this nation. If this election is about Obama versus the Obama-Lite candidate, we have a tough time rallying this nation. It’s time for bold vision, bold reforms and bold contrasts. This election is about more than Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum – this campaign is about freedom and I will fight to restore your freedoms.”

A reasonable attempt to get back on message but the underlying sentiment is clear, and the Romney camp didn’t have to spin the Senator’s original statement as it was quite succinct and clear. Rick Santorum knows his campaign is on its last legs, and while I commend him for performing well above expectations, the end is near and nothing can change the outcome.

AUTHOR’S NOTE: I am pleased to be joining Valerie Sargent Martin (@ValerieSMartin) on her radio show, tomorrow Sunday March 25th at 5:00PM EST to discuss the GOP Primary. For details go to Valerie’s website and I hope to hear from you then.