Santorum Beats Obama, Romney Loses?

Posted by in Blog, Featured, Politics on February 5, 2012 9:17 am / 4 comments

That’s what this recent Rasmussen poll says, anyway.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 26% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -14 (see trends).

In a potential Election 2012 matchup, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is at 45% while President Obama earns 44%. This is the first time in any poll that Santorum has led the president. Several other GOP challengers have led the president a single time in the polls including Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich. Each man briefly held the lead while they were surging in the polls, only to fall quickly. It remains to be seen what will happen to Santorum’s support.

Santorum gets 78% of the Republican vote and leads by ten among those not affiliated with either major party. President Obama get 83% of the Democratic vote in that matchup. Santorum leads by 16 points among men but trails by 12 among women. As is typically the case in all matchups, the president leads among those under 40 while the GOP hopeful leads among those who are over 40. [...]

Only one GOP candidate has led the president in more than one poll and that’s former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. At the moment, however, he is behind. The latest daily numbers show President Obama at 47% and Romney at 43%.

Chances this is a fluke? Pretty high. However, maybe it’s likely the recent Romney-Gingrich feuding has dropped Romney’s chances against Obama and Santorum’s relative lack of skin in that game is serving him well.

It will be interesting to see how this plays into the electability argument for Mitt – especially if this becomes a trend.

Hat tip: @MattCover

Photo credit: Talk Radio News Service
 
 

4 Comments

  1. Doug Mataconis says:
    February 5, 2012 at 10:09 am

    I wouldn’t put all that much faith in head-to-head matchups of any kind this far in advance of November. At the most, it’s a reflection of the President’s job approval rating combined with what kind of press coverage the person they’re matched up against has gotten. In Santorum’s case we’ve got a candidate who’s gotten mostly positive coverage because he’s being treated like the underdog he is. Were he to become a serious contender, his negatives would rise just as Romney’s inevitably have due to increased scrutiny.

  2. Tom Dougherty says:
    February 5, 2012 at 10:31 am

    While I don’t doubt Scott Rasmussen’s methods, this is a mathematical anomaly created by a very confused electorate. I also agree with Doug, in that I place no significance in generic ballots this early in the cycle. It is however indicative the purely insane GOP primary race.

  3. Rob says:
    February 5, 2012 at 10:44 pm

    Those numbers don’t mean anything right now. Romney was ahead much longer than Santorum has been. Santorum hasn’t had a target on his back like Romney. Wait until it’s just Romney and Obama. Romney will take the lead quickly. Santorum for the longer amount of time has been behind Obama.
    Romney will rise again. I don’t think there’s any way Santorum would be Obama

  4. Christopher London says:
    February 27, 2012 at 3:23 pm

    I think that there is far more to these polls. Romney is damaged goods. A wide swath of the electorate sees him as an insincere, hollow man, a veritable shape-shifting political chameleon with no core principles or values. He is widely perceived to be an out of touch elitist fraud. The contempt for Romney is that he is seen as a man without character or integrity. Santorum does not have an authenticity problem like Romney, some folks just don’t like some of his views. If Santorum gets by Romney and focuses his discussion with the electorate on economic and family values, he is a much bigger threat to Obama.

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