SC Debate: Gingrich Wins, Romney Struggles and Santorum Is Packing

I am hard pressed to recall a more tumultuous 24 hours in a Presidential contest, primary or general, than yesterday. Perry’s departure and endorsement of Newt followed by revelations and leaks of an interview with Marianne Gingrich laid a foundation for an unpredictable but exciting debate last night. Viewers were not disappointed right from the start and as the evening wore on things became clear.

John King of CNN started the debate by asking Newt Gingrich if we wanted to comment on the reported allegations of his second wife regarding an “open marriage”, a fair question given the day’s events and one that King took some fire for from other journalists and pundits. But King was in a no-win position as moderator since the question had to be asked and as he explained later he felt it better to get it out front and not have it hang until later in the debate.

Newt’s reply was a calculated gamble and it paid off handsomely. Rather than display any contrition or directly address the allegations he went after King, CNN, ABC and the entire mainstream media for their behavior regarding not just this issue but coddling and protecting President Obama. The gamble paid immediate gains as the crowd rose to their feet in a resounding display of support. Whether that was for Newt the candidate, his assault on the media or a combination of both was immaterial. King became the sacrificial lamb for the media as Newt sallied forth with what was clearly his best moment of the night.

As the debate progressed Newt, bolstered by his early success, became stronger and more confident as he dominated the remainder of the evening. Everybody knows debating is one of Gingrich’s primary skills as a campaigner and once he had the momentum there was no turning back or slowing him down.

Subsequently the effects of his performance are already being seen empirically as he has moved to a 1 point advantage in the RCP Average today, and anecdotally as interviews with voters in South Carolina who say they changed their support to Newt have aired this morning.

With regard to Mitt Romney, I have taken his debate prep team and political advisors to task before and it seems they have again displayed an ineptness based on both debates this week. Romney spent a large part of the evening fumbling for words, uncertain of himself and generally came off less Presidential than he has since his one bad night in Iowa. If Mitt is going to seal the nomination early and begin coalescing the Republican Party behind his candidacy he must get a clear and concise message together and hire new debate prep staff. Romney simply cannot go mano-a-mano against Gingrich now.

He must stop with the jumbled and mumbled excuses for not releasing his income tax returns and he must address his wealth. Romney has done nothing improper or unethical, at least it so appears, and he should be championing that not defending it. Stand up and say, “I was extremely successful in my years at Bain Capital and that has provided me with considerable wealth. Yes, I have availed myself to all legal means to pay the minimum in taxes into a system that clearly will do little but waste that money and I agree the system is broken. That’s why I believe in a complete overhaul of the tax code and new economic policies by which this country is run”.

The American electorate may not be the smartest group of people across the board but they should not be treated like idiots or coddled by obfuscating what will inevitably be an issue in the general election if he is the nominee. It’s time for Mitt to ask when it became anti-American to be financially successful and then redirect the debate to one of competence and capabilities. Most Americans aspire, realistically or not, to be financially independent so Romney needs to play to that with a story of how his business success will create the environment in which everybody has a greater chance to achieve their own financial goals.

I abhor ineptness and inexactitude which puts Romney’s current policy advisors and debate prep team at the top of my current list of offenders. Governor it’s time to clean house if your current staff is incapable of getting the job done. You have a great story to tell so tell it and use it to demonstrate why you should be the presumptive nominee not a quivering mass of uncertainty.

Rick Santorum had a few good moments but failed overall to accomplish the one thing he had to do last night. He was feisty and aggressive but he lacked a cohesive plan in his strategy and vacillated between attacking Gingrich and Romney. Santorum had nothing to gain from going after Romney since he has little to no hope of converting committed voters who support Mitt. He had to take back some of the losses he has taken in the last week directly from Gingrich, and he failed pathetically. Come Saturday I fully expect Rick Santorum to finish fourth behind Ron Paul, pack his bags and go home. The former Senator is a nice guy but is not capable of playing at this level and the headiness of Iowa is over.

Ron Paul was, well Ron Paul. His supporters are certainly dedicated and motivated but he will not be the nominee and he knows it. Sure he will hang around, more or less, until he runs out of energy or money but inevitably he will make his speech at some point in Tampa, take a bow and retire back to Texas.

In conclusion, the GOP primary race will be a 2-man affair moving forward after South Carolina, and while still the odds-on favorite to take the nomination Mitt Romney has to get his collective act together or Newt Gingrich will continue to steadily nibble away at that status.

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