One Last Look at the Florida Polls
Well, Gingrich fans… did it hurt crashing back to earth? And Mitt Romney fans… how does it feel to get back up off the mat?
By all indications, that’s what we expect to happen tomorrow night when the votes in Florida’s important GOP primary are counted. Gingrich will get walloped and Romney finally gets a win that wasn’t in the northeast after his crushing in South Carolina.
I don’t know if any polls will be released tomorrow, but right now the Real Clear Politics collection of polls looks like this:
Romney holds a pretty solid average lead of 12.5 points. If they succeed by that margin when all is said and done, the Romney camp will be sitting pretty – and have a lot of delegates in the bag.
But something of note may be the last two polls from Insider Advantage and PPP. Each one shows a vast difference in the 20 and 16 points margin that came from Suffolk and Rasmussen. Instead, they give Romney a smaller margin of only 5 and 7 points. If this trend is correct (but note the common dates between the four) and that’s the margin, Gingrich has a real opportunity to keep this neck and neck as the primaries continue.
However, early voting always counts for something in Florida and I think in this case it works in Romney’s “inevitable” favor. If he did well among early voters, Romney can expect to use that as buffer to any Gingrich resurgence we see in those two polls or one not foreseen at all.
My official prediction: Romney wins by 10 points, bags the winner-take-all del
egates and moves on into Nevada, Missouri, Minnesota, etc. stronger than ever. Also, no one will drop out. Santorum has written off Florida and Paul has promised to make a big contest out of the caucus states moving forward. Gingrich has no reason in my mind yet to bow out before Super Tuesday.
In short, Romney will have a good night tomorrow. Brace yourself for the Rom-inee.