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Unemployment Rate at 8.6%: Perspective
Any questions?
NYT:
The American unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to its lowest level in two and a half years in November, despite the many global crises batting against the economy.
The unemployment rate fell to 8.6 percent, after having been stuck around 9 percent for most of 2011, the Labor Department said Friday. Additionally, a separate government survey found that the nation’s employers added 120,000 jobs last month, after adding 100,000 jobs in October.
![5527928310_e26be19cee[1]](http://www.therightsphere.com/wp-content/uploads/5527928310_e26be19cee1-300x223.jpg){kind=small}
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22 Comments
And before some Lib starts the false meme about this chart was never endorsed by Obama, you can read the full report here. http://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/The_Job_Impact_of_the_American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Plan.pdf The graph is on page 4.
What’s omitted here is the fact that the private sector consensus forecast — the average of Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, etc. — was even more optimistic than the Administration’s at this time.
The reason is that in January 2009, everyone thought that real GDP had declined by about 3% in Q4 2008. That number has since been revised by BEA to be a 9% decline. That’s right: the economic hit was really three times worse than what we knew at the time.
So this chart says nothing about the underlying model the Administration (and, again, virtually all of the private sector) uses. A perfectly good model that’s fed garbage estimates will spit out… garbage.
[...] graph above shows the incompetence of the Obama Administration’s economic policies. The dark blue line is [...]
Ah yes, another idiotic Liberal talking point. How about the Democrats took over congress starting in Jan 2007 – oh look things start going to H*ll in a hand basket, Obama takes office – disaster – actual unemployment over 16% since the economy is so rotten millions have given up even looking for work.
Liberal Solution: Blame Booosh.
Liberalism – ideas so good they have to be made mandatory.
Communism – an idea so great it can’t stand dissent.
Capitalism – an idea so bad it allows competing points of view.
[...] Obama still needs a rapid acceleration in growth to be considered anything better than even-money in 2012. And you can be sure to see more of this modifed Romer-Bernstein chart from the GOP (via the always helpful and must-read Right Sphere): [...]
Mr. RB: perhaps the voters have memories. Certainly things could be much worse and certainly both Bush and Obama did many things on the theory that otherwise things indeed would be much worse. Yet clearly the original issues remain unaddressed, the whole list of them. Housing is under water, foreclosures advance, lenders’ truthful balance sheets are horrid, business is rightfully doubtful of loans or of customers, individuals are doubtful of incomes or even of jobs, national currencies are headed for Weimar type values, governments are unstable and bankrupt morally and financially, every person place and thing on earth is buried in debt, and entitlements of all sorts remain unsustainable while regulatory burdens steadily increase and the political elite jet about the world planning ever more wars and environmentalist conspiracies against progress.
The people I feel don’t believe that they see any good news. Huge numbers right now are giving up their employment searches. The employment gains if real and not just seasonal entry level crews would probably be new firms formed as perhaps lending is beginning to be reborn or perhaps some jobless are betting all on hanging out their own shingle. If the new and hiring firms can achieve profits perhaps we will begin to see things turn around. Given the universal disaster in governmental finances though I don’t expect it. The US and China may be able to bail out the Euro, but there is not enough money in the world to bail out the US and China. Maybe God will open His wallet….perhaps that’s what the optimists see in their crystal balls.
[...] graph above shows the incompetence of the Obama Administration’s economic policies. The dark blue line is [...]
[...] graph above shows the incompetence of the Obama Administration’s economic policies. The dark blue line is [...]
[...] unemployment while not mentioning the number of people who have given up. As a reminder, here is a great chart that shows the Obama administrations prediction of where things would have been with and without [...]
now figure in immigration. the US is adding around a 100,000 new immigrants each month completely swamping the “new jobs” . The unemployment decreases are almost all market drop outs
[...] Hat tip to The Right Sphere. Like this:LikeBe the first to like this [...]
[...] the Obama White House. This may be the most infamous economic prediction in U.S. political history (helpfully updated by The Right Sphere). For the original January 2009 chart from White House economic advisers Jared Bernstein and [...]
[...] Obama White House. This may be the most infamous economic prediction in U.S. political history (helpfully updated by The Right Sphere). For the original January 2009 chart from White House economic advisers Jared Bernstein and [...]
[...] Obama White House. This may be the most infamous economic prediction in U.S. political history (helpfully updated by The Right Sphere). For the original January 2009 chart from White House economic advisers Jared Bernstein and [...]
[...] the unemployment rate below 8.0% but we know that the actual unemployment rate rose to 10% and the actual plot of Unemployment over time followed a trajectory that was worse than the one predicted if we didn’t pass the $787 billion [...]
[...] the Obama White House. This may be the most infamous economic prediction in U.S. political history (helpfully updated by The Right Sphere). For the original January 2009 chart from White House economic advisers Jared Bernstein and [...]
[...] the Obama White House. This may be the most infamous economic prediction in U.S. political history (helpfully updated by The Right Sphere). For the original January 2009 chart from White House economic advisers Jared Bernstein and [...]
How about 1 more line — the line for unemployment rates if we assume the same levels of participation in the labor force? Cause we all know that the Feds are simply lowering the denominator when they can’t raise the numerator in that unemployment rate thing.
[...] the more visually oriented, take a look the now-familiar graph comparing the Romer-Bernstein prediction of unemployment with and without passing the stimulus, and [...]
[...] the unemployment rate below 8.0% but we know that the actual unemployment rate rose to 10% and the actual plot of Unemployment over time followed a trajectory that was worse than the one predicted if we didn’t pass the $787 billion [...]
[...] usually politicians (Barack Obama included) get hammered for overstating how much the economy will improve under their watch. But by [...]
[...] usually politicians (Barack Obama included) get hammered for overstating how much the economy will improve under their watch. But by [...]