New Poll Shows Romney On Top In Iowa
This morning’s Rasmussen Poll shows Mitt Romney now on top of the field in Iowa with 25%, followed closely by Ron Paul with 20% and then Newt Gingrich down to 17%. The rest of the field hovers between 4% and 10%, and while one of them may get a bump, they are relatively insignificant now. If any of the other four candidates’ does spike in the caucuses it will be at further expense to Newt Gingrich, potentially relegating him to a fourth place finish on January 3.
What’s more telling than the numbers above is the following, excerpted from the Rasmussen report:
Romney is now seen as the strongest candidate against President Obama by 35% of Iowa caucus-goers. Twenty-five percent (25%) see Gingrich as the strongest candidate. A week ago, the two were even in that category. Fifteen percent (15%) see Paul as the strongest candidate.
Paul is seen as the weakest candidate by 26%, Bachmann by 21%. Sixteen percent (16%) say that Gingrich would be the weakest general election candidate while only three percent (3%) hold that view of Romney.
By a margin of 10 points, Romney is considered the strongest GOP candidate against President Obama, while Paul is actually seen as the weakest. He may do well in the caucuses due to his popularity and grassroots organization, but even in Iowa they recognize Ron Paul has no chance of beating the sitting President in a general election.
Where has the Romney move to the top come from? He has been more on message of late and that is resonating with likely caucus goers, but the biggest reason is money. Ad buys totaling $3.1 million has taken its toll on Newt and the rest of the field.
Make no mistake, what we’re seeing right now in Iowa is classic politicking where money is king, followed by organization and message. Mitt Romney will continue to have more money, both in his campaign war-chest and through PAC’s that support him, than the rest of the field. His organization is vastly stronger than any other candidate and his message, like it or not, is convincing voters that he is the only GOP candidate that can make Barack Obama a one-term President.
Editor’s note: Romney is still behind in the RCP average, with Paul leading by 3.5 points.