The Right Sphere’s Super-Duper Election Night Prediction Extravaganza
This stuff just got real.
With less than one week remaining before the polls open, every candidate across the country is literally sprinting towards the finish line. But no matter how hard they run, only one thing matters – voter turnout, and who they cast their ballots for. On that note, let’s break down all the tightest races by looking at the highly unreliable polls, and I’ll give you my predictions.
WHO TAKES/KEEPS THE HOUSE?
Well, Republicans obviously take the House. The way some of the latest generic ballot polls from Gallup and the like have been breaking as of late (even if it’s nowhere close to the 10 point lead the GOP had several weeks ago) tells me that this is going to be some sort of blowout. Here’s a few races of note that might decide what type of night the GOP could have on Tuesday:
The “Meh” Night: If the Republicans take Rep. Bart Stupak’s old seat, then the GOP takes the House by only a hair.
The “I’ll Take It” Night: In IL-17, if Phil Hare (D) is defeated by pizza-man Rob Schilling, the GOP takes the House with a decent margin.
The “Holy Cow” Night: If the GOP takes Ben Chandler’s in KY-6, it’s going to be a very good night with a House gain of 60 or more.
The Night of One Thousand Hallelujahs: This will be the Republican tsunami we only dream about. Sean Bielat beats Barney Frank, Charles Lollar takes out Steny Hoyer and John Dingell gets ding-dinged by Rob Steele. We will all be pinching ourselves wondering if it’s real life.
My prediction: The Republicans take the House with a pickup of 57 seats. That will give the GOP a comfortable majority of 235, but just short of the Night of One Thousand Hallelujahs.
THE SENATE: TO FLIP, OR NOT TO FLIP?
Overall, I do not think the Senate is going to flip to the Republicans. Senate races are always more significant and given more air time in the news cycle and in a way it gives voters more ability to nitpick who they want to send to Washington based on how they see that candidate rather than some House races where the letter beside the candidates name is more important. Here’s the toss-up races and my predictions for each.
California: Boxer Wins
RCP Poll Average: Boxer (D) +6.4%
Yeah, I know. I hate those words too. “Boxer wins” is like scratching a chalkboard of pure idiocy, but based on these latest polls, I just don’t see Carly Fiorina pulling it out unless she sweeps the approximately 8% undecided – most of whom are independents in a highly blue state. It was a good effort on Carly and the GOP’s part, but you can only expect so much.
Nevada: Angle Wins
RCP Poll Average: Angle (R) +1.8
In arguably the most sweet victory of all to come on Tuesday, taking out Harry Reid is going to be awesome. Taking out Barack Obama’s right-hand man may not be a takeover of the Senate, but it’s highly symbolic of the failure that is the Obama presidency. This race is going to be close, probably by about 2 points or less and the only way I see Harry Reid pulling this out is if voter fraud gets really, really, bad – such as the voting machines that have his name already selected. Angle wins, the Democratic Party weeps.
Kentucky: Paul Pulls It Out
RCP Poll Average: Paul (R) +8
After leading for the entirety of this race and facing a very liberal Democrat in Jack Conway, Rand Paul will win in Kentucky. It’s in part because he’s a Republican, and Jack Conway is both a Democrat and an idiot. I’m not going to rehash the whole Aqua Buddha conflagration, but let’s admit it didn’t end the way Conway had hoped. Barring some extreme turn of events, Paul should have this in the bag, but it’s not over until the votes are all counted.
Wisconsin: Solid Johnson Win
RCP Poll Average: Johnson (R) +6
Johnson wins easily. A somewhat less than uber-liberal blue state has had it’s fill of the incredibly liberal Russ Feingold and will embrace the pragmatic conservatism of Ron Johnson whose campaign has been very refreshing.
Washington: Murray (Unfortunately) Wins by a Few
RCP Poll Average: Murray (D) +2.2
I really like Sen. Patty Murray’s (D) challenger Dino Rossi. He’s well-spoken and is a great candidate. Unfortunately, I just don’t see poll numbers to indicate that he can pull it out. He did have some momentum a while back, but it was fleeting and Murray has opened up quite a lead going into the homestretch. If GOP doesn’t win this, they don’t win the Senate.
Colorado: Ken Buck Goes to Washington
RCP Poll Average: Buck (R) +1.6
Overshadowed by Rand Paul and Marco Rubio, Ken Buck is one of the infamous ”tea party” candidates. Latest polls show this race tightening up, but I think Buck will win by a comfy margin because 1) Men are coming out in droves (and won’t care about his “gay” comments) and 2) because anyone who has the can-do to go to the polls and vote Tancredo for CO governor, willeasily vote for Ken Buck.
Illinois: Say Hello to Senator Giannoulias
RCP Poll Average Kirk (R) +2.8
The words “Senator Giannoulias” should burn a hole in the ozone layer all by themselves, especially consider how great a candidate Republican Mark Kirk is. Sure he’s slightly less conservative than ideal, but he is a fiscal hawk and he has that going for him. However, something doesn’t sit right with me about this race. I’d like to call it corruption, but I’m still not sure. This will be my upset pick of the night.
Pennsylvania: Toomey Stays Ahead, Wins By a Bunch
RCP Poll Average: Toomey (R) +3.2
A race tightening up seemingly overnight like this one has makes me doubt it’s that close at all. Toomey has consistency led and I don’t see that changing, especially when the Republican gubernatorial candidate in PA, Tom Corbett, seems poised to win with ease. This is going to Toomey by 5+ points.
West Virginia: Joe Manchin Wins in a Heartbreaker
RCP Poll Average: Manchin (D) +4.8
Gov. Joe Manchin (D) of WV is a popular guy. Obama, on the other hand, is not. Respectively, one has super-high approval rating in the Mountain State while the other has super-low ratings. Republican John Raese latched on to this fact, and is running on a “Stop Barack Obama” platform that says keep Manchin doing a good job in WV and stop Obama in DC. While this worked initially, I fear Raese peaked to early. This gave Manchin time to flip-flop on multiple issues, and his golden word had time to spread. It’s disappointing to me because I said this race was winnable from the beginning, and while it still is, I see Manchin squeaking it out.
The GOP takes the House with a gain of 57 or more seats. The GOP has a net gain of 6 in the Senate as well.
I might be being a little cynical, but I would greatly enjoyed being proven wrong if it means higher GOP gains.
Now don’t forget to vote!!